May: Social housing 2030

May: Social housing 2030


Chart of the Month
05.05.2021 Author/s: André Adami and Antonia Wecke

At the turn of the millennium, the housing market was relaxed in many regions, with hardly any new social housing being built. Although the need for subsidized housing has been growing again for around ten years - the forecast for 16 of Germany's largest cities shows that the number will decline massively by 2030.

In our article on the study "Subsidized Housing" commissioned by our client Wertgrund, we have already shown that the number of subsidized apartments in Germany is steadily declining despite new construction.

With a few exceptions, this trend will continue over the next ten years: Developments and the forecast for 16 of the 26 cities examined for the study show that social housing stocks will continue to shrink. In isolated cases, the negative trend has been somewhat dampened by new construction or additional purchases. However, declining numbers of subsidized rental apartments dominate the picture and will also further intensify political discussions on the housing market, as in Berlin.

The data on the forecast development of subsidized rental housing between 2019 and 2030 provide important information. However, a possibly nationwide, standardized database is wishful thinking, because every city calculates differently. Data availability is very incomplete, and in addition, cities take different parameters into account when collecting or presenting data. In some cases, new construction figures are added, while in others only expiring commitments are shown without new construction or the purchase of additional occupancy commitments.

Source: Housing market reports of the cities, NRW.Bank, parliamentary inquiries. Data basis: for NRW cities: in the model calculation, in addition to the stock of price-linked apartments as of December 31, 2019, approved but currently not yet completed apartments up to and including mid-July 2020 were also taken into account; Berlin and Munich: incl. notified new construction additions; Hamburg: 1. Förderweg. New construction program figures, purchase of occupancy commitment and commitment extensions taken into account; Frankfurt/M., Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Stuttgart: no new construction or purchase taken into account. Status of data analysis 22.01.2021.

For Berlin, an increase in subsidized housing of around 8% is expected, taking into account the planned new construction measures. The target is to maintain the stock above 100,000 units. Losses are expected in the other cities shown. In Hamburg and Munich, for example, declines of around 10% and 13% respectively are assumed, despite taking planned new construction into account. For Frankfurt/Main, Karlsruhe, Mannheim and Stuttgart, only the apartments falling out of the occupancy obligation are shown. The loss in the cities ranges from 18% in Frankfurt/Main to 40% in Karlsruhe. The North Rhine-Westphalian cities all have the same calculation basis. Here, the declines are lowest in Bochum (-28%) and highest in Bonn (-60%).

 

Note: The study (in German) is available upon request from Karl-Philipp Jann of PB3C, who organizes press and public relations for WERTGRUND: jann [at] pb3c.com, 0049 30 726276-1612.

Contact persons: André Adami, Head of Division Residential, adami [at] bulwiengesa.de, and Antonia Wecke, Junior Consultant at bulwiengesa, wecke [at] bulwiengesa.de